Pitcher Lab

Strikeout model with game-log K/PA, arsenal shape, pitch sequencing, opponent lineup K rate, platoon pressure, air density, and each pitcher's own K-count variance.

Prop Engine

Slate

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Best K Match

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Regression Watch

ERA/FIP/xERA context loading

Method

Negative binomial when variance supports it

Matchup

Matchup View

Guardrails

Pitcher vs Pitcher

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Pitcher vs Lineup

Lineup handedness, batter split OPS, BvP history, and opponent bullpen risk. BvP is context, not a standalone edge when the sample is small.

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Pulled-Air Exposure

Home runs are overwhelmingly pulled air contact — a pulled fly ball leaves the yard 37.2% of the time vs 5.4% the other way, and pulling is worth roughly 5 mph of exit velocity. Unlike HR/FB allowed, which barely repeats year to year (r=0.06), pulled-air-allowed is a real pitcher skill (r=0.51) and predicts next season's HR/FB allowed ~3x better. Index 1.00 = league average; higher means more exposure to the short parts of the park.

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Strikeout Board

Board

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Pitcher	Matchup	Best Prop	K Match	Platoon	Sequence	Arsenal	Regression	GS	ERA/WHIP	K/PA	Opp K	BF	Mu K	Line	O/U %	Fair	Dist
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