Wind on Field
How much every ballpark and its weather adds or removes from a batted ball's home-run chance today — wind direction, carry, temperature, and park dimensions, layered into one environment read for every game on the slate.
| Ballpark | Park HR Factor | Weather Carry | Added by Park & Weather |
|---|
Expected From Contact → Environment
A home-run model can estimate the HR likelihood of every batted ball from how it left the bat — exit velocity, launch angle, and spray direction — before considering the stadium or the weather. That gives an “Expected From Contact” baseline.
Layering the stadium and weather on top of that baseline shows how much the park environment added or removed. A calibration that tracks the liveliness of the baseball — including mid-season changes — removes the ball's influence so these numbers isolate the stadium and weather.
NYCE's read on this slate uses venue coordinates, live wind & temperature, and built-in park HR factors to produce the environment multiplier you see on each game — the same idea, applied to today's conditions.
Caveat. This does not account for a stadium's impact on batter contact. So a park like Coors Field (which enhances contact) is understated, while a park like Daikin Park (which suppresses it) is overstated. Treat these as environment context, not standalone picks.